Simulation of the spatio‐temporal extent of groundwater flooding using statistical methods of hydrograph classification and lumped parameter models     

K. A. Upton  C. R. Jackson 《水文研究》2011,25(12):1949-1963

This article presents the development of a relatively low cost and rapidly applicable methodology to simulate the spatio‐temporal occurrence of groundwater flooding in chalk catchments. In winter 2000/2001 extreme rainfall resulted in anomalously high groundwater levels and groundwater flooding in many chalk catchments of northern Europe and the southern United Kingdom. Groundwater flooding was extensive and prolonged, occurring in areas where it had not been recently observed and, in places, lasting for 6 months. In many of these catchments, the prediction of groundwater flooding is hindered by the lack of an appropriate tool, such as a distributed groundwater model, or the inability of models to simulate extremes adequately. A set of groundwater hydrographs is simulated using a simple lumped parameter groundwater model. The number of models required is minimized through the classification and grouping of groundwater level time‐series using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. One representative hydrograph is modelled then transposed to other observed hydrographs in the same group by the process of quantile mapping. Time‐variant groundwater level surfaces, generated using the discrete set of modelled hydrographs and river elevation data, are overlain on a digital terrain model to predict the spatial extent of groundwater flooding. The methodology is applied to the Pang and Lambourn catchments in southern England for which monthly groundwater level time‐series exist for 52 observation boreholes covering the period 1975–2004. The results are validated against observed groundwater flood extent data obtained from aerial surveys and field mapping. The method is shown to simulate the spatial and temporal occurrence of flooding during the 2000/2001 flood event accurately. British Geological Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Processes © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling and neural networks to identify model parameters from piezocone tests: I. FEM analysis of penetration in two‐phase continuum     

Rafał F. Obrzud  Andrzej Truty  Laurent Vulliet 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(16):1703-1730

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Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state     

Diego Manzanal  José Antonio Fernández Merodo  Manuel Pastor 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(12):1347-1362

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于热层电离层耦合数据同化的热层参量估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

何建辉  乐新安 《地球物理学报》2020,63(7):2497-2505

本文采用高效集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)算法和背景场热层电离层理论模式NCAR-TIEGCM,开发了热层电离层数据同化系统.基于全球空地基GNSS电离层斜TEC观测、CHAMP和TIMED/GUVI热层参量观测构型设计了系列观测系统模拟实验,对热层参量进行估计.实验结果表明,(1)通过集合卡尔曼滤波算法同化电离层TEC观测能够较好地优化热层参量.(2)中性质量密度优化效果在整个同化阶段均有提升,提升百分比能达到40%.(3)积分氧氮比在同化阶段也能得到较好的优化,但在电子密度水平梯度变化剧烈区域效果较差.最后本文对中性质量密度进行了预报评估,结果表明,由于中性成分优化,在地磁平静条件下其预报时间尺度可长达24h.  相似文献   

湖北地区地震震源参数研究     

申学林  魏贵春  丁文秀  戴苗 《中国地震》2018,34(4):781-787

为了研究湖北地区地震震源参数特征,本文基于湖北数字地震台网记录到的S波观测振幅谱,通过遗传算法获得湖北地区的介质品质因子和台站场地响应,并在此基础上计算了湖北地区地震震源参数。结果显示,湖北地区介质品质因子Q值随频率f变化的关系式为Q(f)=501.8·f~(0.309);对于大部分台站获得了与其岩石基底相符的场地响应,没有出现明显放大效应;地震震级与地震矩对数间呈线性关系,即lg M_0=10.06+1.093M_L;震源半径与应力降间呈双对数线性关系,即lgΔσ=10.52-2.01lgr;地震矩与拐角频率间整体上呈反相关;地震矩与应力降间关系不显著。  相似文献   

基态位涡径向分布对浅水涡旋系统动力稳定性的影响分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘爽  钟玮  刘宇迪 《地球物理学报》2018,61(6):2207-2219

本文基于正压浅水模型，分析基态位涡（Potential Vorticity：PV）结构对热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone：TC）类涡旋系统稳定性及其波动特征的影响.通过引入基态PV结构参数：宽度δ（眼墙内外边界涡度发生陡变的半径长度之比）和中空度γ（眼心相对涡度与内核区域平均相对涡度之比），设计具有相同基流最大切向风速和最大风速半径的170组不同基态PV环结构的敏感性试验，并讨论了不同基态PV结构下涡旋系统最不稳定波数（the most unstable wavenumber：MUWN）和系统最不稳定模态（the most unstable mode of System：MUMS）的特征频率及其不稳定增长率的大小.结果指出：当PV环较宽，系统表现为低波数最不稳定，相应的MUMS为低频波且增长率小；当PV环较窄，系统表现为高波数不稳定，且PV环越实最不稳定波数越高；当PV环窄且空时，MUMS均为中高频波动，且不稳定增长率随PV环的宽度变窄和中空度变空而明显增大.分析典型PV结构下系统演变特征可知，当PV环较宽，MUMS表现为具有平衡约束的低频波动的线性不稳定特征；当PV环趋向窄且空时，MUMS的平衡性约束趋向弱化，同时不稳定增长表现为明显的指数型增长.进一步讨论系统内部非对称结构的形成和传播机制发现，对于弱不稳定的PV环来说，低波数波最不稳定的特征波动具有典型涡旋Rossby波特征；而对于强不稳定的PV环来说，高波数不稳定的特征波动混合波性质明显.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯框架的各向异性页岩储层岩石物理反演技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘财  符伟  郭智奇  刘喜武  刘宇巍 《地球物理学报》2018,61(6):2589-2600

页岩岩石物理建模旨在建立页岩矿物组分、微观结构、流体填充与岩石弹性参数的关系.对四川盆地龙马溪组页岩进行岩石物理建模研究，针对页岩黏土含量高、层间微裂缝发育等特点，利用Backus平均理论描述页岩黏土矿物弹性参数，利用Chapman理论计算与水平微裂缝有关的VTI各向异性，并利用Bond变换考虑地层倾角的影响.提出以黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比为拟合参数进行岩石物理反演的方法，并引入贝叶斯框架减小反演的多解性.由已知的黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比作为先验信息，并以测井纵、横波速度作为约束条件建立反演的目标函数，同时利用粒子群算法进行最优化搜索.计算结果表明，基于先验约束和粒子群算法的反演方法能够较准确地反演黏土矿物的弹性参数、孔隙形态参数以及裂缝密度等参数.计算得到的黏土纵、横波速度较高，并且在一定范围内变化，这可能与龙马溪组页岩的黏土矿物组分中具有较高弹性模量的伊利石含量较高有关，同时也与黏土定向排列等微观物性特征有关.反演得到的裂缝密度与纵波各向异性参数ε呈明显的正相关，而与横波各向异性参数γ相关性较小.另外，页岩各向异性参数与黏土垂向的纵横波速度有较强的相关性.  相似文献   

HOLOCENE ACTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE MINJIANG FAULT IN THE EASTERN MARGIN OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU     

LI Feng  LIU Hua-guo  JIA Qi-chao  XU Xi-wei  ZHANG Xiao-liang  GONG Fei 《地震地质》2018,40(1):97-106

As a part of the north-south seismic zone in China, a lot of M6.0-7.2 earthquakes have occurred in the margin faults of the Minshan block in history. This work attempted to characterize the geometry and activity of the north section of the Minjiang fault in this region based on high-resolution satellite images, geologic and geomorphic investigations, micro-geomorphic surveys, and trench excavation. The results show left-lateral-slip and Holocene activity of this structure. Along it, the offset landform has a continuous linearity on Ⅱ terraces near the Chuanpan village. The vertical height of the fault scarp measures 3.1 meters, which is almost the same as the accumulative horizontal displacement of the gully. The accumulative horizontal shortening due to faulting is 3.0 meters. Calculation using the model of displacement-dependent characteristic earthquakes shows both the vertical and horizontal co-seismic displacements and the horizontal shortening amount are about 1.0 meter. While strata dating suggests that the vertical and horizontal slip rates are all about 0.7-0.9mm/a, and the horizontal shortening rate is approximately 1.0-1.1mm/a. The excavated trench, perpendicular to the fault trace, reveals low-angle thrust dipping in 260åt 29°. From the relationship of the fault, colluvial wedge and stratigraphy ages, three palaeoseismic events are identified from youngest to oldest at 0-295a BP, 1 405-1 565a BP, and 2 750-2 875a BP, respectively, with recurrence intervals 1 110-1 565 years and elapsed time about 0-295 years。According to the relationship between magnitude and active parameters, it is considered that the northern segment of the Minjiang fault is capable of generating M7 or greater earthquakes. Now it is in the process of stress accumulation, having a certain seismic risk.  相似文献   

考虑时间约束的地震救灾数学模型设计与实现          下载免费PDF全文

王前锋 《地震工程学报》2018,40(4):853-858

在地震救灾方面,针对信息实时更新的地震救灾数学模型,为了满足不同受灾点的物资需求,增加了出救点数量以及配送时间,以此来保证地震救援物资需求的满足度,提高了应急响应水平。结合地震救灾特点,设计了一种考虑时间约束的地震救灾数学模型。该模型在地震救灾物资需求预测部分,分析影响地震救灾物资需求量的主要因素,构建地震救灾物资需求量计算模型,对影响地震救灾物资需求量的主要因素构建隶属度函数,给出基于模糊综合评判的地震救灾物资需求分级模型。其次,考虑时间约束以及需求不确定等方面,构建考虑时间约束的地震救灾多目标优化数学模型,并给出求解模型。实验结果表明,该模型减少了救灾物资到达受灾点的延迟时间,可在满足时间约束的条件下提高物资需求满足率。  相似文献   

温度对宽频地震计观测资料影响的研究方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王晓蕾  谷国梁  薛兵  朱小毅 《地震》2018,38(3):170-180

本文以具有力平衡反馈结构的甚宽频地震计BBVS-120为分析对象, 通过台站观测实验和实验室温控实验的相关分析, 得到了温度对输出信号影响的频带范围和水平, 定义了温度灵敏度参数, 从定量的角度分析了温度对地震计观测资料的影响。  相似文献